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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Fr 12/07/12
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM Fr 12/07/12 (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 8 December 2012, at 3:31 p.m.
Here's some OtB thinking:
Let's start simple. Assume if we roll a 6 on our next shake we win and otherwise we lose. (Ignore gammons.) Then we're about 30% to win. Is that enough at this matchscore?
I don't know the MEQ's here, but if I can make some educated guesses that might be enough. Take and lose and we're tied (50% MWC). Take and win -- we lead 2A-10A. Pretty sure an 8 point lead at Crawford would make us ~94.5% MWC. This isn't as high -- let's guess 90%. Pass and we lead 6A-8A. That should be about 62% (adjusting from 5A-7A which is 63%?).
So the numbers are 50%, 62%, 90%. Numerator is difference between the first two and denominator is difference between first and last: 12/40 = 30% cgwc takepoint.
OK, that's borderline. Did my assumptions favor us (in which case we should pass) or opp (in which case we should take)? Let's look at them 1-by-1:
1. We win this game 30% (cubeless). I think we can do a bit better than that. We can win a few closed out, and opp might have trouble entering giving us more than one chance to roll a six. (The flipside is that we crunch further when we don't roll an immediate 6 -- with any 3 except 63 plus 21, 22, and 11.) Assumption favors opp.
2. No gammons. We're more likely to win a gammon (I think) but opp gets considerably more value from his gammon wins. I don't know which side the assumption favors.
3. MEQ's -- how good is the 90% estimate at 2a-10a? Might be a bit optimistic. -- assumption favors us.
4. No recube vig. Clearly favors opp since we will have a small chunk -- Guess this is a couple % in our favor.
Bottom line is I don't know. :) If passing is correct I suspect that it's a small error to take. If taking is correct I suspect passing could be a big mistake. I'm calling that the tiebreaker.
Take
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