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For EPC lovers

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 9 December 2012, at 2:00 p.m.

In Response To: For EPC lovers (mochy)

Ignoring the traffic in the outfield for the moment, Blue will most likely reach a wedged bearoff with a wastage of 7.5 pips. For White's EPC, I'd use the Keith Count and add 4 pips for the extra's on the ace & deucepts. I'd then add 1 pip for the 5pt gap, 1 pip for a single checker on the 4pt and 0.5 for each checker more than 2 on the deucept plus 7 pips for an EPC of 70+13.5 = 83.5

At this junction, the EPC is 83.5-93.5

Outfield traffic

White is better than 70% here and so the value of a pip is worth 1.6%. White needs a mimimum of 4 pips to bear in while, Blue needs 11. Therefore, 11 - 7 * 0.21 / 1.6 = 0.91 rounded to 1 pip.

The adjusted EPC is 83.5-94.5

Metric

83.5/7-3 = 8 rounded down. 50 + (62-8)/(8+11) * 11 = 80.8%.

NBM

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