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Possibly interesting... or not -- RO's at $

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 9 December 2012, at 6:44 p.m.

In Response To: Possibly interesting... (Chuck Bower)

About 0.15 cubeless difference between having one point made vs. two started, with 3.5% more total wins and 5% more gammon wins -- both RO's below:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 176
Unlimited Game
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaa-B-EAC---dC---cAd-a----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.207% (G:40.999% B:3.272%) 74.042% (G:41.929% B:3.547%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.793% (G:3.999% B:0.175%) 25.958% (G:4.154% B:0.199%)
Cubeless Equities +0.8851 +1.7841
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.0989±0.0137 (+1.0852..+1.1126)
Double/Take:+1.5726 (+0.4737)±0.0243 (+1.5482..+1.5969)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (-0.0989)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 17.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49516203
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 176
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaa-AAEAC---dC---cAd-a----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.631% (G:36.130% B:2.769%) 70.445% (G:36.635% B:3.202%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.369% (G:5.766% B:0.291%) 29.555% (G:5.817% B:0.303%)
Cubeless Equities +0.7410 +1.4922
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9451 (-0.0549)±0.0152 (+0.9299..+0.9603)
Double/Take:+1.2547 (+0.2547)±0.0245 (+1.2302..+1.2793)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49516203
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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