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BGonline.org Forums
recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: recent American Football situation -- OT (Chuck Bower)
Date: Wednesday, 19 December 2012, at 5:48 p.m.
Some things to consider:
1) Is a 2-point conversion (after a TD) an option? Yes, but is it a winning proposal? On average it's not. Here we have the league's best offense vs. one of the league's best defenses. Further, even Belichick (biggest fish in a small pond) is likely to want to extend the game into OT. Here Zeus indicates a pass play gives NE a smidgen under what they need, but keep in mind that this assumes the defense is unsure if it's a pass or run. So in the best case it's a neutral decision -- go for 1 @99% success rate or 2 at 49.4% success rate.
2) What about Sam's fake FG? That depends upon whether or not the opponent is anticipating it. SF is smart enough to do that IF they've seen a precedent that NE has tried it previously. I don't remember a fake FG in the NFL. It happens more at lower levels. And even if you had it, would you let the word out by using it in this game? NE already has clinched their division meaning at least a home game in week 1 of the playoffs. (They're contending with the other two AFC division champions, Denver + TBD for a week 1 bye.)
3) If you're intent on going to OT with a 50-50 chance even then, scoring a 3 (field goal) and a 7(TD + single extra point), does it matter which order you get them? If that's your (IMO erroneous) GP, you would want to optimize the FG distance Goldilocks style -- not too long (since probability of success is distance dependent) but not too short where you'll waste the field position which could be better used getting the TD -- also distance dependent. Even giving NE credit that they've noticed this optimization problem, do you think they've solved it?
4) Michael N. and Joe R. pointed out what I think is the most important factor. [There is an anology here with the oft-misunderstood going for 1 point conversion very late in a game where you are behind (before the PaT attempt) by 9.] If you score the TD first you have some chance of scoring another TD on the second possession and not having to go into OT at all. Your backup option on the second possession (with time close to expiring) would be to fall back to attempting the (never gimme) FG, planning on your "50-50" chance in OT.
Zeus has the pass favored by 1.09% to 1.01% w/0.007% j.s.d.
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