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recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 20 December 2012, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO (Bob Koca)

"Is a 2-point conversion (after a TD) an option?" Are you talking about a TD right away or the TD after a FG?

I was talking about FG+TD+{1 or 2} scenario. I wanted to make the argument "there is one good way to win in regulation" and didn't want people to come back "no, you can kick the FG now and then go for 2 after the touchdown." Yes, you can, but it's (marginally) wrong compared to the extra point, therefore there is only one way to (correctly) win in regulation.

Even without considering the 2xTD outlier, by symmetry going for 2 after scoring a TD (before a FG) is wrong as well. As you emphasize, the 2xTD outlier scenario makes it even more wrong.

Carrying your point further, suppose you were >50% to make a 2-point conversion but only 50% to win a game that goes to OT. Then what's the best GP? (I don't have the answer at the moment, but maybe someone else can sort this out, if you even have enough information. Seems like a tougher problem than the original.)

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