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recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 21 December 2012, at 4:52 p.m.

In Response To: recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO (Bob Koca)

OK, so if (as the rollout shows) 6+1(attempt) followed by onside is worth 0.08% more wins than 3 followed by onside, what 2-point conversion success rate is required to make 6+2(attempt) better than 6+1(attempt)? Assume P(1 pt conversion) = 99% and P(win in OT) = 50%. (Assume no ties in OT.) Also assume that in the rollout, only 1pt conversions were attempted.

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