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Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 9:23 p.m.

In Response To: Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- one final qualitative concern (Chuck Bower)

I believe Xavier's MET answered the question. My reason: match leader gets to use the cube more often in the 2a3a game that match trailer -- almost twice as often. Thus the continuous model assumption is biased in favor of match leader.

Note the bias favors the person who turns the cube because the cube is only turned right at the pass/take point where said cube is 100% efficient. In real backgammon those cube turns are rarely 100% efficient. I.e. real cubes don't favor the doubler as much as cubes which are turned in the continuous model. This model also assumes neither player ever makes a cube handling mistake. (In the pure continuous model the non-doubler can never make a take/pass cube error, but in my answer to Joe where I assumed 75% of cubes were takes, none of which was an error, by construction.)

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