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BGonline.org Forums
Number of games to establish two players have equal skill
Posted By: Frank Berger In Response To: Number of games to establish two players have equal skill (leobueno)
Date: Saturday, 5 January 2013, at 5:41 p.m.
One problem might be that you don't know the standard deviation. For cubeless game it's trivial because you can simply calculate it if you make assumptions about the gammon/bg percentages.
For play with cube you can't do this, and IIRC Zare and another one (Bob Koca? Timothy?) have doubted that it's even defined. (they constructed a scenario what was somehow related to the ST. Petersburg paradox). I believe without standard deviation you can't calculate the confidence interval, but I'm to much of a mathematical layman to make an assertion.
As a pragmatical programmer/economist I am I would estimate the standard deviation from a larger number of games (>40, the more the better) and do a simple estimation with that values.
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