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EPC Confusion NO MORE!

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Monday, 14 January 2013, at 8:35 a.m.

In Response To: EPC Confusion NO MORE! (AP)

I agree completely. This seems like an excellent paper, covering the topic very comprehensively. Congratulations to the author. Thank you for sharing.

As has been shown by previous authors since Kleinman, racing probability can be estimated very well by measuring the difference in position in average rolls to bear off (or EPC which is directly related), then translating as a standard deviation from the mean, and then converting to a probability from the normal distribution.

The first part of the problem has already been covered fairly comprehensively by developing knowledge of EPC. However, the standard deviation aspect has been a little problematic in extreme wastage positions because its proportionality with race length varies considerably between the extreme cases of pips vs pips and roll vs rolls. (There being a much smaller proportion in the latter case). As the new paper explains standard solutions have been defined for pips vs pips (the normal situation) and for the other extreme N-Roll positions. However, intermediate cases including rolls vs pips and pips vs rolls needed to also be considered, and this paper appears to have developed a practical solution. I notice that the trend line for rolls vs pips and pips vs rolls is identical in the paper. This appears to make sense to me because the standard deviation for these two intermediate situations will be similar hybrids between the two extreme cases of pips vs pips and rolls vs rolls.

There will of course be other intermediate cases between pips vs pips and rolls vs rolls which are not perfectly defined by this new intermediate case (eg, where the roll-like position has the checkers placed on the 1, 2 and 3 points with perhaps a single straggler in the outfield). However, relative errors will tend to be small. Moreover, if necessary it’s possible to make reasonable guesstimates on adjustments.

Messages In This Thread

• EPC Confusion
  AP -- Saturday, 12 January 2013, at 10:03 p.m.
  • A Better Way than Hybridization of EPC
    mamabear -- Saturday, 12 January 2013, at 11:50 p.m.
    • A Better Way than Hybridization of EPC
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 10:22 a.m.
    • A Better Way than Hybridization of EPC
      AP -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 4:28 a.m.
  • EPC Confusion
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 7:35 a.m.
  • EPC Confusion
    Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 12:45 p.m.
  • EPC Confusion
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 1:24 p.m.
  • EPC Confusion
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 9:40 p.m.
  • EPC Confusion NO MORE!
    AP -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 4:38 a.m.
    • EPC Confusion NO MORE!
      Rick Janowski -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 8:35 a.m.
    • EPC Confusion NO MORE!
      Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 14 January 2013, at 10:32 a.m.