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Rollout

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 28 January 2013, at 9:22 p.m.

In Response To: 31, hit or no hit? (Taper_Mike)

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 113 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 119 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-ABA-CB-B---bBb--bbdaBb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 31

1. Rollout1 21/20* 13/10 eq: -0,244 Player: Opponent: 41,70% (G:17,11% B:0,46%) 58,30% (G:23,01% B:3,35%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,259...-0,230) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds 2. Rollout1 21/20* 5/2 eq: -0,317 (-0,073) Player: Opponent: 40,02% (G:14,29% B:0,32%) 59,98% (G:20,89% B:1,60%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,329...-0,306) - [0,0%] Duration: 59,8 seconds 3. Rollout1 21/20* 8/5 eq: -0,331 (-0,087) Player: Opponent: 40,09% (G:15,44% B:0,43%) 59,91% (G:23,90% B:2,95%) Conf.: ± 0,017 (-0,348...-0,314) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds 4. Rollout1 21/20* 6/3 eq: -0,335 (-0,091) Player: Opponent: 39,38% (G:13,25% B:0,29%) 60,62% (G:19,38% B:1,54%) Conf.: ± 0,012 (-0,347...-0,323) - [0,0%] Duration: 55,6 seconds 5. Rollout2 5/1 eq: -0,495 (-0,251) Player: Opponent: 35,33% (G:2,33% B:0,05%) 64,67% (G:3,54% B:0,16%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,510...-0,479) - [0,0%] Duration: 31,7 seconds 6. Rollout2 8/4 eq: -0,505 (-0,260) Player: Opponent: 34,85% (G:2,11% B:0,04%) 65,15% (G:2,59% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,518...-0,491) - [0,0%] Duration: 30,9 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

OTB I was thinking similar to ah_clem: "OK, hitting is the DMP play, but it can't be right here - I'll leave four (or six!) blots, gammon danger is too high", so I decided to play 5/1 and wait for an another opportunity.

But as Stick said: In situations like this one too you need to remember not only does the dmp play win more, but it also wins more gammons which would factor into your equation. Too many people focus solely on how you stated it, wins v. gammon losses.

Messages In This Thread

• 31, hit or no hit?
  mtuhtan -- Sunday, 27 January 2013, at 3:14 p.m.
  • 31, hit or no hit?
    Stick -- Sunday, 27 January 2013, at 3:48 p.m.
  • 31, hit or no hit?
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 27 January 2013, at 6:49 p.m.
    • Rollout
      mtuhtan -- Monday, 28 January 2013, at 9:22 p.m.
  • Anybody else?
    mtuhtan -- Monday, 28 January 2013, at 3:53 p.m.
    • Anybody else?
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 28 January 2013, at 4:48 p.m.
  • 31, hit or no hit?
    Michael Depreli -- Monday, 28 January 2013, at 4:01 p.m.
  • 31, hit or no hit?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 28 January 2013, at 6:48 p.m.