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It seems to be redouble day!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 30 January 2013, at 10:22 p.m.

In Response To: It seems to be redouble day! (Michael Depreli)

Seems fairly math easy so let's try.

The take point since it's for the match is the equity if the cube was passed or the 3a 7a score and that's ~23%. The scary of this position comes from the triple shot and gammons so for now let's ignore them.

Blue hits 27/36 rolls with 6 rolls hitting and covering [64 43 41] and 10 [21 51 61 33 66 63]rolls hitting two blots (or more). So out of those 16 games I'm giving us 15.5/16 games. Of the remaining entering/hitting games (11) I guess we win about 10 of those. Update to 25.5/27 games so far.

What about when we fan? We don't get cubed out and with 3 blots it will not be easy to clean up. I only did it quickly but it seems 28/36 rolls leave at least one blot. That number right there directs me back to my gut reflex of this position. Stop analysis...it's too good.

Stick

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