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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 8 February 2013, at 2:53 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

The trailer's takepoint ATS is just 6.7% and the leader shouldn't redouble unless his winning chances are real close to that. How to estimate winning chances here? I think you start with estimating each sides EPC.

Several ways to do that. Here's one: http://www.bkgm.com/articles/Matussek/BearoffGWC.pdf

Using this method White/Black's EPC's are 19.9 and 27.5. Next we need to estimate winning chances. Matussek's winning chance formula doesn't work in this position (it gives White over 100% winning chances), so we need to use some other method.

White has something close to a nearly no miss position while Black has a pips position. The favorite in this kind of a position has a bigger edge than the leader in a pips v pips position, given the same EPC's in each case.

EPC's of 19.9 vs. 27.5 in a pips v pips bearoff means it's pretty late in the game so each side would probably only waste about 6 pips which means the raw pip counts would be 13.9 to 21.5.

Kleinman's formula gives the leader about 92.75% in a 13.9 to 21.5 race. The leader should be somewhat better off given the position type here so maybe add a quarter or so percent making White around a 93/7 favorite. That's close enough to the trailer's takepoint so R/T.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 21
13 point match
pip: 12
score: 10

is Player 1
XGID=--B-B---------------bba---:1:1:1:00:10:2:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 92.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 7.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.856 +1.259
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.916 (-0.043)±0.000 (+0.915..+0.916)
Redouble/Take:+0.959±0.000 (+0.959..+0.959)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.041)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1.0 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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