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XGR++ Evals of Upcoming Cube Actions

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 19 February 2013, at 1:46 a.m.

In Response To: Full RO (Petter Bengtsson)

Petter Bengtsson: [White] has a clear double after 21/13 and a clear no double after 13/7 6/4.

That’s an interesting observation that I completely missed. How can I put that information to use in evaluating the position?

Here, in spite of the double, it is better to run, and take the cube. The cube is triggered by the many market losers, and is therefore not the most efficent. Do the advantages of cube ownership mean that forcing your opponent into a less efficient double than he might otherwise get is desirable?

Ultimately, it seems that positional considerations, rather than cube actions, dictate Blue’s decision to run.

Mike

Cube Action after Blue Plays N (Near) = 13/7, 6/4
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 95
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABCbDA----------cdcBba--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.752% (G:9.665% B:0.320%) 62.785% (G:9.957% B:0.349%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.248% (G:4.927% B:0.114%) 37.215% (G:5.187% B:0.115%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.3045 +0.6115
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.4475
Double/Take:+0.3667 (-0.0807)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.5525)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.3%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Cube Action after Blue Plays R (Run) = 21/13
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 95
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBbE------B----cdcAba--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.899% (G:14.924% B:0.554%) 63.731% (G:13.804% B:0.385%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.101% (G:8.762% B:0.413%) 36.269% (G:6.686% B:0.267%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.3410 +0.6939
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.3948 (-0.0538)
Double/Take:+0.4487
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.5513)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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