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OLM 2013-03-04 ROLLOUT - Sconyers equities

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 7 March 2013, at 6:22 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-03-04 ROLLOUT - @ normal score (Daniel Murphy)

Blue wins 77.9689% cubeless. Blue's cubeful-$ equity is 0.99922. (Gnu-bg passes this test. :)

Interesting (to me) that 78.0% cubeless wins in a mutual bearoff with all checkers home and summed pipcount < 110 is this high with position still a (admittedly razor thin) take. Maybe that doesn't surprise others, though.

However, this might (should?) surprise many (except maybe Koca :) -- EPC wastage difference is only 0.38 (in favor of Blue) yet the absolute error of a pure Kleinman Count is 3.5% cgwc. Kleinman does have adjustments for gaps -- a gap on the 4-point costs 3 pips if there are 3 or more on the 5- and 6-points, together. A 3 pip penalty to White here -- adjusted to 52 to 60 -- has a KC of 144/108 = 12/9 which is ~79% MWC, now about 1% overestimate.)

Comments? ("Yawn" doesn't qualify.)

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