[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Swiss vs random draw

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Friday, 15 March 2013, at 12:48 a.m.

In Response To: Swiss vs random draw (Robert Wachtel)

If we assume that the better players are more likely to win each round, then clearly, in my opinion, a random draw gives a weaker player a chance to win a tournament without ever having to meet top players along the way, and he might not even have to in the final rounds.

An argument can be made that the stronger player may also never have to worry about meeting a stronger player, as he too, might get lucky and only draw weak players when there is a random draw.

But even if we assume that BOTH are more likely to be able to slide through the event without meeting a top-ranked opponent, that would still give the weaker player a greater chance of winning the tournament than he would have otherwise.

I am sure the answer to this question could be proven mathematically by setting up an "artificial" draw both ways, and by assigning elo rankings to various players, and then making an assumption that every elo point difference will raise individual match winning chances by X, and then putting it in a computer and crunch the tournament a few thousand times each way, and seeing how often a lower-elo player wins with each format. I am pretty sure the random favors the weaker player.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.