The XG rollouts make sense to me, now. With a centered cube, we want to double out. We can do that after (any?) nonhitting return. 7/2 or 6/1* or 7/6 5/1* all minimizes hits. If hit, we still lead with a lower pipcount, better structure and fewer checkers back. So, 25 nonhitting returns that solve our problem, and 11 returns that leave us a favorite.
With the cube turned, we want to race. We give 6 more shots (for 17), all of which leave us a favorite. That's bad. But after the other 19 numbers we should rate to leave at most another fly shot, maybe two. If instead we play 7/2, the 25 nonhitting numbers haven't solved our problem. Rather, they give us a second problem of needing to cover the blot, while still wanting to clear the outfield point and race.
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 7/2 | +0.847 |
| | | 0.704 | 0.186 | 0.008 | - | 0.296 | 0.067 | 0.002 | +0.533 | +0.847 | | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.011 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 677974702 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 7/6 5/1* | +0.821 ( -0.026) |
| | | 0.695 | 0.185 | 0.008 | - | 0.305 | 0.065 | 0.002 | +0.515 | +0.821 | | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.001 | - | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.012 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 677974702 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 6/1* | +0.812 ( -0.036) |
| | | 0.700 | 0.171 | 0.005 | - | 0.300 | 0.064 | 0.002 | +0.511 | +0.812 | | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.011 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 677974702 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 4 | R | 16/11 | +0.807 ( -0.040) |
| | | 0.717 | 0.172 | 0.007 | - | 0.283 | 0.055 | 0.002 | +0.558 | +0.807 | | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.009 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 677974702 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
