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Rollout: The perils of knowing too much

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2013, at 11:59 p.m.

In Response To: The perils of knowing too much (Timothy Chow)

Thanks for the responses. I saw all the options but chose the blitz rather than the naked ace point. Blitzing does win more gammons but 20/15(2) 6/1*(2) wins more games without losing the gammons that 20/10(2) does. 20/15(2) 6/1*(2) might even be the DMP play.

Mike Taper asked for the game sequence up to this point; I don't have it on me but I'll try to remember to dig it up and post it later.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA--cD---cbcBb----:0:0:1:55:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout120/15(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.105
Player:
Opponent:
53.08% (G:8.48% B:0.20%)
46.92% (G:9.69% B:0.38%)
Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.088...+0.122)
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout120/10(2)eq: +0.056 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
52.39% (G:8.28% B:0.30%)
47.61% (G:11.44% B:0.36%)
Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.040...+0.072)
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
3.Rollout18/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.053 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
48.60% (G:16.39% B:0.22%)
51.40% (G:8.79% B:0.38%)
Conf: ± 0.019 (+0.034...+0.072)
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
4.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.009 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
48.94% (G:10.50% B:0.17%)
51.06% (G:6.74% B:0.29%)
Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.010...+0.028)
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
5.Rollout113/3(2)eq: +0.000 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
48.55% (G:11.88% B:0.28%)
51.45% (G:7.44% B:0.34%)
Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.017...+0.017)
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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