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cube decision

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 2:38 p.m.

In Response To: cube decision (steve)

The first step is to calculate the raw takepoint.

If blue passes the score is 0-4 or 7a 3a which has MWC of 23% If blue takes and wins, the score is 4-2 or 3a 5a for 65% If blue takes and loses the score is 0-6 or 7aC for 9%

So blue is risking 23-9 == 14 in order to gain 65-23 ==42

The raw takepoint is then risk/(risk+gain) = 14/(42+14) = 14/56 = 2/8 = 1/4 or about the same as for money.

Then we need to adjust for gammons (nothing to do in this position) and recubes. AtS, the recube vig is huge since eating an 8 cube completely eliminates white's 2-0 lead. I don't know how to calculate this exactly, but for money the recube vig pushes the takepoint down by 3 to about 22%, so AtS it must be at least twice that. Let's say 18%.

Can blue win 18% of games here? Blue has six checkers to go, but probably won't bear off in three rolls because he's likely to miss at least once. But he can miss twice and still bear off in four. Meanwhile white is almost a lock to bear off in four rolls - all her checkers are on low points and she can miss once and still be off in 4. So, a gross simplification is to call this an N-roll bear off, with N==4. That's 25% for blue here, so he's got a comfortable take, assuming that the N-roll model is accurate.

Another way to arrive at the GWC is to calculate the Trice number - take white's raw pipcount of 17, add 2 for the spare on the ace and 2 for the extra checker on the board to get an adjusted pipcount of 21. Blue's pipcount doesn't need adjusting so white is ahead by 3 pips (adjusted). subtrack 5, divide by 7, round down (21-5)/7 -> 2 for the trice number, which is blue's point of last take for money. This would give a close pass for money,but adjusting for score brings it into the take range.

Since both estimates say "take", I'm going to go with take.

Now, can White cube this one? Woolsey's law is of no help. On one hand, it's moderately volatile (doubles for either side is a huge swing) with massive recube vig, so placing the cube into blue's hands is risky. OTOH, there are many market losers and a win with the cube at 4 is very efficient since it gets white to Crawford.

OTB, I think I'd cube since some players may drop this. Not sure if it's a technical cube.

R/T

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