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BGonline.org Forums
cube decision
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: cube decision (steve)
Date: Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 6:01 p.m.
Trailer's dead 4-cube takepoint ATS is around 24% but the leader's 8-cube takepoint is 35% so the trailer's cubeful takepoint (assuming 70% efficiency) is around 17.7%.
White has a nearly no miss position while Blue has a sort of flat position. If all of White's checkers were stacked on the ace, his EPC would be 29. Here he misses with D2 and very likely after D1. Each missing number is worth about .2 effective pips and he's got a few other longshot missing sequences so 29.5 would be my guess for his EPC.
Matussek's EPC formula gives Blue an EPC of 31.7 and that looks about right.
At a normal matchscore Blue's point of last take in a rolls vs. pips or pips vs. rolls would be when trailing in the EPC by 1 pip (leader's rolls minus 3). Does the fact that we have a nearly no miss vs. a flat position change the leader's rolls minus 3 rule? I don't think it does by much since in both flat and roll positions 1) That side can lose by rolling too many small numbers and 2) Not all doubles play equally well. If this assumption is correct, then this is a big pass at a normal matchscore (which means Blue's winning chances are well below the cubeful takepoint of approx 22%).
Are the extra 1.2 effective pips enough to bring Blue's winning chances below 17.7%? Well let's see. The game would be pick-em if 29.5 was on roll vs. 25.5 while 29.5 vs. 30.5 would give the favorite about 78% chances. So each pip in this range is worth 5.6%. It might not be linear outside this range however, but it's probably close. The extra 1.2 pips only have to reduce Blue's winning chances by 4.3% to give Blue a marginal take/pass and I'm pretty sure it does at least that.
R/P looks right to me.
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