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BGonline.org Forums
cube decision
Posted By: Stick In Response To: cube decision (John O'Hagan)
Date: Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 8:16 p.m.
I think your epc estimates are far enough off to have a big impact. "Matussek's EPC formula gives Blue an EPC of 31.7 and that looks about right. " I have no idea, and am too lazy to look it up, what Matussek's epc formula is but one of my rules is that a nice position with 5 or 6 checkers wastes 6.5 pips. This is almost nice and has 6 checkers so I expect it to be 7. That makes up for a good deal of the distance between your epc estimates.
As for the not so pure 4 roll position I expect it to inch closer to 30 than 29.5. We would add 1 effective pip if the average of the pip count of an odd number of checkers was 2.6. Here it is 2.4+. Not so far off so I'd estimate closer to 30.
Stick
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