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why is this a double?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 26 March 2013, at 12:39 p.m.

In Response To: why is this a double? (DanielP)

I've found that the trailer can usually double ATS if he has 3 or 4 mkt losers on tap and his winning chances are within 8% of the leader's gammon-adjusted takepoint. If he has fewer than 3 or 4, he should wait until his winning chances are closer to the leader's point of last take; if he has more, he can double even sooner. Some judgment is required in applying this rule since not all mkt losers lose the mkt by the exact same amount.

The leader's takepoint ATS is 26% + 47% of trailer's gammons = ~34.5%. The leader actually wins 45.35% from here so you wouldn't quite have a double if you only had 3 or 4 mkt losers since you're 11% away from oppt's point of last take. But I think you have well over 3 or 4 mkt losers in this position: Various hitting doubles followed by a poor or non-entry, double hitters followed by oppt dancing with at least one checker and not hitting, single hit & fan or enter poorly.

Therefore, you have a double ATS.

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