53P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games — XG1 & XG2 Rollouts

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53P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games — XG1 & XG2 Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 1 April 2013, at 1:02 a.m.

In Response To: David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43 (Taper_Mike)

In Neil’s 4-ply rollout of 51S-43, U, D, S, and Z are all within 0.012 of best.
51S-43 [U D3 S7 Z12] "^46*32 14

In the positions below, U and D have both lost ground against Z and S. The prime-oriented D is less effective when there is a double gap to fill, and two builders have already been spent making the 3pt. As for U, it is more effective to play up when the opponent has only three checkers on the 8pt. When he has four, a roll of doublets can be disasterous. In addition, back-to-back, single hits from the 8pt will not force him to break that point.
Am I missing anything here?
Mike

XG1 Rollout

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aaB--D-B---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43
1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: +0.0872
Player:
Opponent: 51.70% (G:15.41% B:0.72%)
48.30% (G:12.95% B:0.62%) Conf.: ±0.0112 (+0.0759...+0.0984) - [92.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: +0.0735 (-0.0137)
Player:
Opponent: 51.37% (G:15.36% B:0.69%)
48.63% (G:12.96% B:0.59%) Conf.: ±0.0113 (+0.0622...+0.0848) - [4.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq: +0.0734 (-0.0138)
Player:
Opponent: 51.54% (G:13.50% B:0.64%)
48.46% (G:12.31% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0110 (+0.0624...+0.0844) - [3.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq: +0.0652 (-0.0219)
Player:
Opponent: 51.06% (G:16.46% B:0.69%)
48.94% (G:13.64% B:0.80%) Conf.: ±0.0109 (+0.0544...+0.0761) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1
Rollout by Dmitriy Obukhov
2010-Dec-27
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.xx
53P-51S-43-do.xgp
[Z S14 U14 D22] '<5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

XG2 Rollout

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aaB--D-B---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43
1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: +0.084
Player:
Opponent: 51.72% (G:15.25% B:0.69%)
48.28% (G:12.84% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.081...+0.088) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: +0.074 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent: 51.42% (G:15.28% B:0.66%)
48.58% (G:12.87% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.070...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq: +0.068 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 51.53% (G:13.61% B:0.66%)
48.47% (G:12.61% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.065...+0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
4. Rollout² 13/10 13/9 eq: +0.061 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 51.18% (G:16.41% B:0.68%)
48.82% (G:13.83% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.057...+0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
5. Rollout³ 24/21 6/2* eq: +0.039 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent: 50.65% (G:14.96% B:0.65%)
49.35% (G:13.18% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.033...+0.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
6. Rollout³ 13/6 eq: +0.034 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent: 50.42% (G:15.58% B:0.61%)
49.58% (G:13.70% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.029...+0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 49 seconds
7. Rollout³ 13/10 6/2* eq: +0.018 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent: 50.21% (G:16.36% B:0.73%)
49.79% (G:14.71% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.012...+0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89502711
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89502711
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89502711
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Mar-31
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
53P-51S-43-tm.xgp
[Z S11 U16 D24 X46 T50 H66] "<=31**20 10
[Z S17 D17 U23 T48 X52 H63] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

53P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

GnuBg 2-ply 1063955330 +81 [Z S5 U9 D30 X37] /5***1 Stick

GnuBg 2-ply Trunc 678550130 +51.173 [Z D19 S22 U23 T41 X56 H89] /0.360t Taper_Mike

XG 1.xx 3-ply 1 +87.2 [Z S14 U14 D22] '<5 Dmitriy Obukhov

XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 89502711 +84.3 [Z S11 U16 D24 X46 T50 H66] "<=31**20 10 Taper_Mike

XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +83.5 [Z S17 D17 U23 T48 X52 H63] "&e Taper_Mike

53P-51S-43 — According to Score
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +29.6 –7–9 [Z S14 U20 D25 X50 T51 H68] "&e Taper_Mike

53P-51S-43 — Nactation Key
Family Nactation Traditional Notation Note

Down D 13/10, 13/9

Hit H 13/10, 6/2*

Split S 24/20, 13/10

sTack or Tower T 13/6

Up U 24/21, 24/20

Hit and split X 24/21, 6/2*

Reverse split Z 24/21, 13/9

53P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply	1063955330	+81	[Z S5 U9 D30 X37] /5***1	Stick
GnuBg 2-ply Trunc	678550130	+51.173	[Z D19 S22 U23 T41 X56 H89] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 1.xx 3-ply	1	+87.2	[Z S14 U14 D22] '<5	Dmitriy Obukhov
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	89502711	+84.3	[Z S11 U16 D24 X46 T50 H66] "<=31**20 10	Taper_Mike
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+83.5	[Z S17 D17 U23 T48 X52 H63] "&e	Taper_Mike

53P-51S-43 — According to Score
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+29.6	–7–9 [Z S14 U20 D25 X50 T51 H68] "&e	Taper_Mike

53P-51S-43 — Nactation Key
Family	Nactation	Traditional Notation
Down	D	13/10, 13/9
Hit	H	13/10, 6/2*
Split	S	24/20, 13/10
sTack or Tower	T	13/6
Up	U	24/21, 24/20
Hit and split	X	24/21, 6/2*
Reverse split	Z	24/21, 13/9

Messages In This Thread

David Rockwell Vs. Dmitriy Obukhov
Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 26 March 2013, at 11:36 p.m.
- David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
  Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 4:33 a.m.
  - David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
    storm -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 1:46 p.m.
  - David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 2:00 p.m.
  - David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 4:20 p.m.
    - David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 5:05 p.m.
      - +1 *NM*
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 5:09 p.m.
  - David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 12:50 a.m.
    - David vs. Dmitriy — 53P-51S-43
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 12:57 a.m.
  - 53P-51S-43 Rollout (GNU)
    Stick -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 1:58 p.m.
  - 53P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games — XG1 & XG2 Rollouts
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 1 April 2013, at 1:02 a.m.
    - Need help with U (Up)
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 1 April 2013, at 1:21 a.m.
      - Need help with U (Up)
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 1 April 2013, at 3:25 a.m.
        
        Need help with U (Up)
        Chase -- Monday, 1 April 2013, at 5:38 a.m.
      - Need help with U (Up)
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 1 April 2013, at 4:09 a.m.
  - 42P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games — XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 7 April 2013, at 3:50 p.m.
  - 31P-51S-43 — Unlimited Games — XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 7 April 2013, at 10:21 p.m.
  - Comparison: 31P-51S-43 vs. 42P-51S-43 vs. 53P-51S-43
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 7 April 2013, at 11:15 p.m.
    - Outstanding Analysis By Mike
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 8 April 2013, at 3:13 a.m.
    - Comparison: 31P-51S-43 vs. 42P-51S-43 vs. 53P-51S-43
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 8 April 2013, at 5:52 p.m.

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