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Easy Cube at 2a4a

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 4 April 2013, at 12:07 a.m.

In Response To: Easy Cube at 2a4a (Stick)

Not surprised JOH responded, but where's everyone else? BTW, it's only 'easy' if you get it right.

What's White's buried cube takepoint? Pass for 18.5%; take and win for 50%; take and lose for 0%. Without recube vig he needs 37% which he doesn't have. But we need to dig deeper.

Blue hits with 28/36 (~78%) of his numbers. In those cases it goes redouble+take for the match. I'll guess White can still win 3% of those so 75.5% match wins for Blue and 2.5% match wins for White, so far.

Are there any non-hitting numbers which allow Blue to take a recube? Pass for 50%; take and win for 100%; take and lose for 0%; so he will need 50% wins after a miss to be able to take. I don't think even 55 wins 50%. So 8/36 of the time Blue's MWC is going to be 50% to win the match (after redouble+pass).

Let's add 'em all up. From Blue's PoV, 75.5%*(1 match) - 2.5%*(1 match) + 22%*(1/2 match) = 84% of matches won, on average.

That's 16% match wins for White if he takes but he needs 18.5%.

Double + Pass

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