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Emperors without clothes

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 13 April 2013, at 12:10 a.m.

In Response To: What a mess. (Dmitriy Obukhov)

This position, IMO, emphasizes a part of backgammon today which exposes some misconceptions. (And we have a wide spectrum of opinion from ND+T to D+P). In particular, that uberbot vs. uberbot results are the most meaningful, and (related) that some ego-bloated humans think they can play as well as the uberbots. Take a look at the two rollouts below. Which better represents the level of top humans in the present (mid-April 2013)?

There certainly exists the question "if XG-4ply plays XG 4-ply, is it a take or drop?" but that should in many/most cases be distinguished from "if fallible human-A plays fallible human-B, is it a take or drop?".





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
Unlimited Game
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABaBBB--a-B-AA----A-Aba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.452% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 76.973% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.548% (G:4.791% B:0.604%) 23.027% (G:4.317% B:0.548%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4751 +0.9816
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8356 (-0.0090)±0.0310 (+0.8046..+0.8666)
Double/Take:+0.8445±0.0391 (+0.8055..+0.8836)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1555)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50872032
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:63.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
Unlimited Game
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABaBBB--a-B-AA----A-Aba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.491% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 79.819% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.509% (G:3.935% B:0.534%) 20.181% (G:3.469% B:0.391%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5251 +1.1155
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9163 (-0.0797)±0.0219 (+0.8944..+0.9383)
Double/Take:+0.9960±0.0295 (+0.9666..+1.0255)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0040)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
804 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50872032
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:60.4%
Duration: 15 hours 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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