         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 109
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--a-bCFBBb----B--bbcc-----:1:-1:1:53:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 53 |
Three candidate plays are: - O (Outer) = 14/6 — This play makes a break for it, but leaves 17 shots. As well, cleanup fails when Blue’s next roll totals 5 or less (11 12 13 14 23), or else is 66, 64, or 55. Finally, when Blue is able to cleanup, he may find that his position is only a little less brittle than it is right now.
- P (Point) = 7/2 5/2 — When you are cornered, as Blue is now, hitting is always a serious contender. This play leaves return shots on 61, 52, 43, 33, and 13. That’s less than either of the alternatives. Depending if and where Blue enters, cleanup could be more or less difficult. Rolls of 22, 23, 25, 26, 33, 35, 36, 44, 46, and 66 all leave a blot somewhere. 36 leaves two, so it could be ugly. When missed, Blue will still face the problem of clearing his 14pt. With a stripped 5pt and a stack on the 6pt, Blue’s position will be even more brittle than before.
- i (inside) = 6/3 6/1 — This play leaves 11 shots, only 2 more than the minimum. It keeps the 4-point block that Blue has now, and attempts to add to it. By unstacking, it addresses the most glaring deficiency in Blue’s structure. Cleanup is comparatively easy, especially when Blue can sacrifice one of his outer board points. Rolls of 61, 62, 63, 65, and 54 all leave shots next time. Afterwards, Blue will still face the difficulty of clearing his 14pt.
Even if he is not hit this turn, Blue is still a long way from being out of the woods. Recognizing that, he should make the play that addresses his structural weakness, and gives him a chance to confront whatever trouble awaits him later with an improved position. Holding onto the 14pt as insurance against disaster is as much of a plus as it is a minus.
For these reasons, I like slotting the 1pt and 3pt best. Hitting is my second choice, with breaking for home as a distant third.
Mike |