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too strong to double

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 2:53 p.m.

In Response To: too strong to double (matthieu_in_hk)

At a "normal" match score, such as 5a 5a, or for money play this is clearly a double and a pass. You win about 90% of games and about 11% gammons. Usually you need about twice as many gammon wins as single point losses to justify playing on for gammon.

AtS (3a3a) the gammon price on a centered cube is elevated from it's usual value of 50% to about 75%. Since the gammons are more valuable (mainly because a gammon gets you to Crawford) it's correct to play on with a lower ratio.

Note that only 65 forces blue to leave a shot, and then white is only 30% to hit for a total chance of being hit of ~1.7%. The other 98.3 percent of the time blue will still have a cash next roll. So there's little risk in taking a shake.

All that said, I'm fairly sure I would have cubed this otb.

Messages In This Thread

• too strong to double
  matthieu_in_hk -- Monday, 13 May 2013, at 11:59 p.m.
  • too strong to double
    David Levy -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 1:04 a.m.
    • too strong to double
      PINO -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 8:16 a.m.
  • too strong to double
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 2:53 p.m.
    • too strong to double
      Chase -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 3:46 p.m.
    • too strong to double
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 3:47 p.m.
      • too strong to double
        ah_clem -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 6:45 p.m.
        • too strong to double
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 7:36 p.m.