Running off the anchor just can't be right -- we are entering into an even race with inflexible stacked position and a lone straggler under attack. Bringing two down (which is the play Kit recommends) disconnects our position and does nothing to solve the problem of two towers. It does turn out to be correct at GS, though. So, by simple elimination we must unstack. (Once again, distribution of spares!) The ambitious 10/5 8/4 loses too many gammons to be correct for money, but is the correct play at DPM and GG. I'm not sure anybody would have found the correct play for money, it's so inhuman. Very difficult position.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-b----E-E-A-bB-b-b-cc-Ba--:0:0:1:54:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 54 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 10/6 8/3 | eq: -0.432 | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.22% (G:10.22% B:0.42%)
60.78% (G:16.07% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.439...-0.424) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 20 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.457 (-0.025) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.25% (G:9.46% B:0.39%)
61.75% (G:14.05% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.463...-0.450) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 10/5 8/4 | eq: -0.464 (-0.033) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.68% (G:10.62% B:0.49%)
60.32% (G:20.27% B:0.94%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.472...-0.457) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 21 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout2 | 10/5 6/2 | eq: -0.494 (-0.062) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.84% (G:9.75% B:0.43%)
61.16% (G:19.30% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.509...-0.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds |
| | 5. | Rollout2 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: -0.500 (-0.069) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.94% (G:10.13% B:0.43%)
61.06% (G:22.56% B:1.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.515...-0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds |
| | 6. | Rollout2 | 22/13 | eq: -0.535 (-0.103) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.13% (G:9.08% B:0.57%)
60.87% (G:26.51% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.549...-0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 30 seconds |
| | | 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45925336
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45925336
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | | 1 point match | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-b----E-E-A-bB-b-b-cc-Ba--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10 | | Blue to play 54 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 10/5 8/4 | eq: -0.190 | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.50% (G:11.54% B:1.30%)
59.50% (G:25.64% B:2.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.195...-0.184) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 minutes 49 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 10/6 8/3 | eq: -0.202 (-0.013) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.88% (G:10.59% B:1.14%)
60.12% (G:21.15% B:1.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.208...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 42 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/2 | eq: -0.204 (-0.014) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.78% (G:10.87% B:0.84%)
60.22% (G:23.90% B:3.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.211...-0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 06 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: -0.205 (-0.015) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.74% (G:10.34% B:1.04%)
60.26% (G:27.42% B:3.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.211...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 57 seconds |
| | 5. | Rollout1 | 22/13 | eq: -0.217 (-0.027) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.16% (G:10.18% B:1.10%)
60.84% (G:26.19% B:1.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.222...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds |
| | 6. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.220 (-0.030) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.99% (G:10.32% B:0.81%)
61.01% (G:18.79% B:1.92%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.225...-0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 27 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6670769
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 145 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 150
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-b----E-E-A-bB-b-b-cc-Ba--:0:0:1:54:0:1:1:2:10 | | Blue to play 54 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 10/5 8/4 | eq: +0.039 | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.66% (G:11.31% B:1.27%)
59.34% (G:26.37% B:3.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.032...+0.047) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 29 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout2 | 10/5 6/2 | eq: +0.006 (-0.034) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.85% (G:10.44% B:0.96%)
60.15% (G:25.26% B:2.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.002...+0.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 34 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: +0.004 (-0.035) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.68% (G:10.55% B:0.80%)
60.32% (G:28.98% B:4.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.004...+0.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 32 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 10/6 8/3 | eq: +0.003 (-0.037) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.81% (G:10.32% B:0.90%)
60.19% (G:21.31% B:2.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.004...+0.010) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds |
| | 5. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.036 (-0.075) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.98% (G:9.22% B:0.94%)
61.02% (G:18.60% B:1.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.043...-0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 14 seconds |
| | 6. | Rollout1 | 22/13 | eq: -0.040 (-0.079) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.41% (G:8.60% B:1.46%)
60.59% (G:26.10% B:2.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.046...-0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 10 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77255990
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34863461
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 150
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-b----E-E-A-bB-b-b-cc-Ba--:0:0:1:54:1:0:1:2:10 | | Blue to play 54 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.509 | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.12% (G:10.37% B:1.00%)
61.88% (G:13.59% B:1.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.515...-0.504) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 30 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 10/6 8/3 | eq: -0.525 (-0.015) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.75% (G:10.91% B:0.86%)
61.25% (G:14.98% B:1.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.530...-0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 23 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout2 | 10/5 6/2 | eq: -0.593 (-0.084) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.25% (G:10.21% B:1.24%)
61.75% (G:17.91% B:2.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.600...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 01 second |
| | 4. | Rollout3 | 10/5 8/4 | eq: -0.603 (-0.094) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.70% (G:10.25% B:1.13%)
61.30% (G:18.87% B:2.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.611...-0.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 02 seconds |
| | 5. | Rollout2 | 8/4 8/3 | eq: -0.669 (-0.159) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38.10% (G:10.48% B:1.47%)
61.90% (G:21.54% B:3.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.677...-0.661) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 12 seconds |
| | 6. | Rollout3 | 22/13 | eq: -0.799 (-0.290) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39.48% (G:10.62% B:1.69%)
60.52% (G:29.44% B:1.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.807...-0.791) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 37 seconds |
| | | 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77255990
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34863461
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77255990
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2