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too strong to double

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 14 May 2013, at 6:45 p.m.

In Response To: too strong to double (neilkaz)

This may be slightly TG at a normal score like 11a11a and probably is TG owning the cube at normal scores or money play.

I mis-spoke when I said it was "clearly' a double at normal scores. It's clearly an initial double for money/jacoby where gammons aren't activated, but it's very slightly TG at 'normal' scores when gammons are active. Of course, the pass is clear - at least I was right about that.

One way to think about it is that it's a poorly timed ace-point game which are usually D/P, but the lack of market-gainers makes taking another shake a "meh" decision. Price of gammon will tip it towards hold or cube, although I'm not exactly sure what's going on at 5a5a.

Some rollouts:

5a5a -





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
5 point match
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBBCBCB-A-------a-abbbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.42% (G:12.23% B:0.28%) 90.72% (G:12.01% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.58% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) 9.28% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.923 +1.865
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.995 (-0.005)±0.003 (+0.993..+0.998)
Double/Take:+1.786 (+0.786)±0.006 (+1.781..+1.792)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

11a 11a:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
11 point match
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBBCBCB-A-------a-abbbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.32% (G:12.31% B:0.32%) 90.79% (G:11.91% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.68% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) 9.21% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.934 +1.902
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.006±0.003 (+1.003..+1.009)
Double/Take:+1.831 (+0.825)±0.006 (+1.825..+1.837)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.006)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Money, holding cube:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBBCBCB-A-------a-abbbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.25% (G:12.31% B:0.34%) 90.82% (G:11.87% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.75% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) 9.18% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.931 +1.875
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.015±0.003 (+1.012..+1.019)
Redouble/Take:+1.809 (+0.794)±0.007 (+1.803..+1.816)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.015)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

5a 3a - here the gammon price is 40%, so with gammons being worth less, tips the decision towards double. Compare to the posted 3a 3a where the gammon price is 75% and it's TG.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 94
5 point match
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBBCBCB-A-------a-abbbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 90.48% (G:12.13% B:0.29%) 90.67% (G:12.04% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 9.52% (G:0.12% B:0.00%) 9.33% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.912 +1.820
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.992 (-0.008)±0.003 (+0.990..+0.995)
Double/Take:+1.777 (+0.777)±0.005 (+1.772..+1.783)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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