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Rollout: Isn't 11 supposed to be better than this?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 20 May 2013, at 9:52 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Isn't 11 supposed to be better than this? (Timothy Chow)

Probably it's the old "give ourselves a good 6" idea that puts 8/7 ahead of 6/5.

That plus, I think, not having to defend a home board blot next turn while counterattacking. After bar/23 24/23 8/7:

Roll and playresponse
33 21/18* 13/10 6/3(2) -> hit with 65 55 63 62 61
66 21/9 11/5(2) -> hit with 61 or 52
43 21/18*/14 -> hit with 52 32 22 12
32 21/18* 13/11 or 21 21/18*-> hit with 65 63 62 61 22 11
65 21/10 -> hit with 62 53
63 21/18* 13/7 -> hit with 65 63 62 61 55 52 53 51 43 22 11
31 21/18* 13/10 -> hit with 65 63 62 61 55 22 11
52 21/16 13/11 or 41 21/16 -> hit with 64 54 44 43 42 41 22
51 21/15 -> hit with 63 53 43 33 32 31
54 21/16 13/9 -> hit with 64 61 54 42 44 43 42 41 22
44 or 11 or 61 or 22 or 42 -> probably attack the home board blot

Now if you compare the situation after bar/23 24/23 6/5 you see that you don't have a six that attacks 13/7*, and if you attack the home board blot, which Opponent will leave four nearly half the time on either your 5 or 4 point, you have to expose a blot to a direct return unless you're able to point on the blot.

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