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Near-end-contact 43

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 21 May 2013, at 12:01 a.m.

In Response To: Near-end-contact 43 (storm)

This seems similar to a position posted by Keene a couple of months ago. Keene never posted a rollout but I think my analysis was on the right track.

In Keene's position, Blue has an ace to play, which means he has some chance of getting a double shot at White's blot. That's not possible in your position, so I don't see any advantage to giving White a double shot. The main question seems to be whether to hold the fort with 7/3 4/1 or to play 18/11 to retain some racing equity. Either way, I think White has a strong double. We're 17 pips down but I think we have enough shot equity to take.

The motivation for holding the fort seems to be to avoid getting hit with something like 62 or 22, and also to block 33 (if White rolls 66, then amazingly it's much better to get hit than to block her!). But the racing equity looks precious and even getting hit with 62 doesn't end the game immediately. I would try 18/11.

Messages In This Thread

• Near-end-contact 43
  storm -- Monday, 20 May 2013, at 8:27 p.m.
  • Near-end-contact 43
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 May 2013, at 12:01 a.m.
  • Near-end-contact 43
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 21 May 2013, at 2:22 p.m.
    • Near-end-contact 43
      Chase -- Wednesday, 22 May 2013, at 4:59 p.m.
  • Near-end-contact 43
    storm -- Wednesday, 22 May 2013, at 1:22 p.m.
  • Near-end-contact 43
    Keene -- Thursday, 23 May 2013, at 3:44 p.m.
  • Near-end-contact 43: RO
    storm -- Friday, 24 May 2013, at 4:25 p.m.
    • Near-end-contact 43: RO
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 May 2013, at 7:03 p.m.
      • Near-end-contact 43: RO
        storm -- Saturday, 25 May 2013, at 10:43 p.m.
        • Near-end-contact 43: RO
          Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 26 May 2013, at 6:46 a.m.