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Possible re-re-re to 8 ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 5 August 2013, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Possible re-re-re to 8 (roadkillbooks)

The takepoint here is 16% but blue's (theoretical) doubling window opens at 65%. The take is not close at all, but the double is. See variant.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 33
9 point match
pip: 36
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCDB-A-----a---------bdf-:2:1:1:00:3:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 78.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 21.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.562 +0.780
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.742 (-0.038)±0.001 (+0.741..+0.743)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.780±0.000 (+0.779..+0.780)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.220)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

//////////////variant/////////////////////////////

Here I've just moved the runner from the 12 to the 13. With one more pip and one more transition for white it's a narrow hold.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 32
9 point match
pip: 36
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DCDB-A------a--------bdf-:2:1:1:00:3:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.489 +0.647
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.665
Redouble/Take:+0.647 (-0.018)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.335)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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