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Ordinary Every Day 16 Cube?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 2 January 2008, at 6:00 p.m.

In Response To: Ordinary Every Day 16 Cube? (Stick)

Tell me if I remember this "ref. pos." correctly: A) if cubeless White wins 1/3 simple, loses 1/3 simple, and get's G'ed the remaining 1/3, then s/he has a take. B) However, if the above numbers are cubeful then it's a pass.

OK, let's say in the listed position White gets exactly one shot. If s/he misses, assume half are simple losses and the remainder are gammon losses. Assume all hits are cubeless wins. Then we have case A above.

How does this ideal case compare with the actual case? For starters there's no way all White's hits will be cubeless wins. However, some will be gammon wins so we can, to zeroth order, assume those offset. How about half of White's losses being gammons? I think it's worse than that (i.e. higher percentage gammons) but maybe not by much. Lastly, what about "exactly one shot"? (Surely the most critical of all the questions listed here.) It feels to me like White will get more shots than this.

Seems like a tough take and clear Woolsey-D-R redouble.

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