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Some Omaha 8 hands (long)
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Some Omaha 8 hands (long) (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Friday, 4 January 2008, at 8:17 a.m.
I'm glad you like these posts. I'm never sure if I'm writing them to hear myself talk or if someone might actually read them and take something from them. Either way it helps me so I can live with it.
How do you know this? Why can't he be on some other hand like 337T or 228K?
Aside from saying 'experience' I don't know what to tell you. If he had flopped trips he likely caps the flop. It's possible he flopped trips and got scared of how good my hand was when I 3 bet, decided to back off til the turn came, now figures he's golden, in which case he'd also cap the turn and he didn't. This confirms my first thought of it being 9J. If he had capped here I guess I'd have some refiguring to do but there was no doubt in my mind he was on 9J.
One thing you should also take into account is this is a $10/$20 game. These ppl are far below my skill level (gotta love the modesty, I know) and they will be playing, more or less, ABC poker to the best of each person's abilities. In other words if it looks like 9J, it smells like 9J, it's probably 9J whereas if I was playing $30/$60 or above it would be a completely different ballgame.
OK, so let's say his high is J9 at best and won't improve beyond that. That leaves 4's, 5's, 7's, and 8's for a low, or 16 outs at 1/2 the pot, right? How do those translate to regular outs? 8 outs? What if he makes a better hand than 2 pair (e.g., he holds 29JK), or makes a low to split the pot? I don't see how we can count 2's and 3's as full outs.
Don't forget that 1/4th of those low cards make me the nut flush and let me scoop the pot. How the outs directly translate when they're for half the pot I'm sure someone has a nice neat formula out there and I have no idea what it is. I feel I'm supposed to reraise so I do. You have to go a long way to give him a low hand because as I said, I've already identified w/out a doubt in my mind two cards are 9J.
I should have been more specific about 'spot the error' but it's hard to do that without giving away 'the error' itself. You did a good job of tackling the hand.
Playing A89T even with a nut flush is speculative at best and I too would have mucked the hand preflop. It's not overly terrible, but it's certainly the kind of player I like to have in my games.
There's no way he should have raised the turn, esp. knowing his cards. I limped UTG and showed strength on that flop, he's praying I don't have a straight to go with my low at this point.
He could have called the river to try to get the other guy in, since his A8 low can't be good with 4 low cards on board and two other players. Neither of those plays seems really out of place to me, though
This is exactly the error I was looking for. He has to give me credit for low, probably nut low, and assumes he'll be splitting the pot with me. His raise drives out a bet. I see the play time & time again. It's only 1/2 a big bet for each of us but it's so elementary to me the fact that I never see anyone make the call there instead they raise is nerve racking. It's also true that in rare cases you will get a calldown of two big bets but I feel these situations can be identified easily and this isn't one of them.
We actually discussed it at the table when it happened and "loxo" said before I made my point specifically that he agreed with me. "sickotic" pointed out he calls with any straight but I pointed out the chances of him having a straight were very small. If he'd have had one on the turn, either 23, 37, 78, he'd have certainly raised. Since all those hands are out now you're putting him on 8X? Not bloody likely. "sickotic" also thought he might "call with the same low I had" which we both thought was ridiculous because it's dead obvious I'm on the nut low, at worst probably third nut where it'd make me the straight and he'd have been pushing the pot in that scenario too.
Lastly, loxo told us what he had. He had trips ... so would he have called 1 more big bet if nobody raised the river? Hard to tell...I know I'd be tempted.
Stick
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