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BGonline.org Forums
Sacrificing Equity
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Sacrificing Equity (Hardy Hübener)
Date: Saturday, 5 January 2008, at 6:09 p.m.
Under the scenario you are asking about, the player gets to play with GNU rollouts as his partner and with the rollouts done at the best settings he is probably going to be 100 ELO (based on KG's rating list 60% to win a 13 pt match if I recall) stronger than the best player in the world playing unaided. He will be much stronger than the average championship division players, ie 70 to 80% to win that 13 pt match.
I expect that occasionally in complicated positions, I might give up .01 to .015 to make a much more complicated play, but only rarely. More likely is that two or more plays might be essentially tied, .005 or so, and that I'd chose the one I judged to be more complicated.
However, it is possible to outsmart yourself doing this, and especially if your complicated alternatives increase the chance that you lose a gammon as you don't want to endure too many large point losses in the match when you are a large favorite anyhow. So, my checker play wouldn't deviate very much from what GNU's high level rollouts tell me.
As far as the cube goes, I'd be giving up lots of theoretical equity if based upon a MET with equal skill levels. While I do think that the advice given in Jacob/Trice's "Fish" goes a bit too far in this regard, the large favorite really needs to be careful and cautious with the cube in matches if the cube is getting large and/or G's are floating about.
Especially with a good lead as the end of the match is approaching, the far better player should not be doubling the weaker opp into anything close to a technical take in a low or moderate skill situation, and even more so if the game is a blitz or two way hitting contest with lots of G's floating around. He also must be wary of taking any thing except a clear take in these situations since he doesn't want to lose 4 points, and also cannot recube with any efficiency what so ever against the tyro who may send back an 8 cube that is virtually for the match.
So before I give away too many of my tourney strats...under these scenario posted by Hardy. Once in a while I might give up .01 or so with checker plays, but only rarely. However, I will be giving up lots more with the cube if the position is rather simple, and/or as I near the end of the match with a lead.
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