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BGonline.org Forums
Can you make a settlement?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Can you make a settlement? (Stick)
Date: Friday, 25 January 2008, at 6:13 a.m.
Settlement with White on roll and Green owning the cube on 4?
Assuming White and Green are playing for $1 per point and that the Snowie evaluation is accurate, then White deserves a fair settlement equal to the evaluation's Redouble/Take equity times the cube value before the redouble times the stake, so
a fair settlement would be 0.463 * 2 * $1 = $0.95.
The R/T equity of 0.463 already reflects the redoubling to 4, that is, the R/T equity 0.463 is really 0.2315 times 2. Which makes sense in comparison to the money cubeless equity of 0.374: White gains equity holding the cube (to 0.504), and loses equity if Green holds it (to 0.2315). No way could White gain equity from 0.374 cubeless to 0.463 by letting Green hold the cube!
If you ask a bot about a last-roll position for $1/point with 100% wins, it will say ND equity is +1.000 and D/T equity is +2.000. Suppose White holds the cube on 16 and there's a redouble/take (Green's on drugs) to 32. Then White deserves a settlement of +1.000 * 32 $ 1 = $32. Or +2.000 * 16 = $32. But not +2.000 * 32 = 64!
Since White almost has a double, we should expect the value of the game to be slightly lower if White redoubles; White can't gain by making a bad double. Thus after wrongly redoubling, his fair settlement is 95 cents, about six cents less than if hadn't doubled, since 0.504 * 2 * $1 = $1.01.
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