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Can you make a settlement?

Posted By: Keene
Date: Friday, 25 January 2008, at 4:37 p.m.

In Response To: Can you make a settlement? (Stick)

So basically, all you do here is calculate what white should win, and subtract what green should win. Cube at 4. That action already happened.

So white hits with 3s and 5s - 25/36. Probably wins 5% gammons (we will negate greens 1-6 escapes with the parlays that green fails to get past white blocks). So .95*25/36 plus .05*25/36 = .6944

Presumably, green wins the remainder since that accounts for green being missed, thats .3056. Net difference of that is .39 (ish). so effectively 0.4 times the value of the cube, times the dollar amount per point. A fair settlement would then be roughly 1.5 points in this case (that green pays to white).

Of course this method is very rough, and assumes that green wins everytime white misses, the rough edges of the approximations should even themselves out - and this technique is really an OTB one. I dont know how to do one based on snowie's equity numbers. Although it really shouldnt be that hard.

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