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BGonline.org Forums
Can you make a settlement?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Can you make a settlement? (Keene)
Date: Friday, 25 January 2008, at 7:55 p.m.
So basically, all you do here is calculate what white should win, and subtract what green should win. ... I dont know how to do one based on snowie's equity numbers.
If you want to get the favorite's simplified win percentage adjusted for gammons and cube posession from Snowie's numbers, just take half the reported equity and add 0.500. Thus
Cube possession Equity Equity/2 + 0.500 = White's adjusted win % White owns 0.504 0.252 + 0.500 = 75.2% Cubeless 0.374 0.187 + 0.500 = 68.7% Green owns 0.463/2 0.2315/2 + 0.500 = 61.575% Reversing,
Cube possession White's wins - Green's wins White's equity White owns it 0.752 - 0.248 = 0.504 No cube 0.687 - 0.313 = 0.374 Green owns it 0.61575 - 0.38425 = 0.2315 But the result is the same: if White owns a 2 cube, the fair settlement at $1/point is 0.504 * $2 = $ 1.01; if Green owns a 4 cube, fair settlement is 0.2315 * $4 = $0.92. [$0.95 in other post is a typo]
So .95*25/36 plus .05*25/36 = .6944 ... A fair settlement would then be roughly 1.5 points in this case (that green pays to white).
Keene's calculation of a simplified win % of 69.44% is close to the 0.687 shown above based on Snowie's equity in a cubeless money game. But a $1.50ish settlement (with Keene's calculation about 0.3888*$4 or with Snowie's about 0.374*$4) is too much. Green's cube possession lowers White's equity and fair settlement price.
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