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BGonline.org Forums
Solution
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Solution (Keene)
Date: Friday, 25 January 2008, at 10:48 p.m.
Actually, when asked to make a fair settlement based on current position, you can no longer use greens future cube use as some of your wins for green. You make your settlement based exactly on current position, and what that is worth.
Why isn't potential future cube use factored into the current value of the position?
Also, Nack said that green has a chunk of equity even if he gets hit - he doesnt its only a 16, as surely white will be sensible enough to spread out his outfield checkers in order to make the bar when he is missed. Yes, theoretically, green can run away whilst white is bearing off and win, but theoretically white could also backgammon green. Although, I do agree that Green will have some residual wins when he is hit, but they are likely countered by white doing some equally bizarre things when green escapes.
Sure, it's only a 16. But it may be several turns before White makes the bar (assuming he ever makes it--if Green rolls an ace immediately then White will have to lift). The equity given by having the chance to roll 16 or any ace over several turns is a lot more than 5% wins; if Green were closed out, he'd still win about 5%. White may have one shot at Green if he escapes, but he doesn't have any kind of repeat equity or anything with Green owning the cube.
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