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The experts disagree, tell me why

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 27 January 2008, at 2:37 a.m.

In Response To: The experts disagree, tell me why (Stick)

If the rollout agrees with the analysis, then did you mean to write that "not moving both men from the 22pt to the 21pt" is correct?

I look first at the rolls next roll that don't jump, and think that although some are equally disastrous after either play, and some arrive at the same position,

-- having a better 2-1 to play if White hasn't moved (9/6 safe instead of 10/8 6/5 or 10/7 blotting although we don't usually like to pile checkers on top of made primes I think this is an exception; making the bar is not as likely to help Green as much as hitting a blot there is to help White), and

-- having hitting 2s if White has rolled 1-6, 1-5 or 2-5 is an overall plus.

But since I can't see that all that adds up to much, I think the more telling point is that when White's prime breaks soon, forcing White to hit if he wants to play to his 3 point is to Green's advantage.


btw, being able to play 22/16 is not a factor in my choice of play. I'm most likely hitting with a six. Generally I'm willing to send more checkers back when opponent is stuck in a 1-2 backgame, even as here where there's only a 4-prime in front of it. And here White seems more likely to break with 7 checkers back than with 6.

Also, the possibility of remaking the 3 point is too remote for me to consider (and White is probably winning most of those games anyway).

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