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BGonline.org Forums
The experts disagree, tell me why
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: The experts disagree, tell me why (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 27 January 2008, at 2:37 a.m.
If the rollout agrees with the analysis, then did you mean to write that "not moving both men from the 22pt to the 21pt" is correct?
I look first at the rolls next roll that don't jump, and think that although some are equally disastrous after either play, and some arrive at the same position,
-- having a better 2-1 to play if White hasn't moved (9/6 safe instead of 10/8 6/5 or 10/7 blotting although we don't usually like to pile checkers on top of made primes I think this is an exception; making the bar is not as likely to help Green as much as hitting a blot there is to help White), and
-- having hitting 2s if White has rolled 1-6, 1-5 or 2-5 is an overall plus.
But since I can't see that all that adds up to much, I think the more telling point is that when White's prime breaks soon, forcing White to hit if he wants to play to his 3 point is to Green's advantage.
btw, being able to play 22/16 is not a factor in my choice of play. I'm most likely hitting with a six. Generally I'm willing to send more checkers back when opponent is stuck in a 1-2 backgame, even as here where there's only a 4-prime in front of it. And here White seems more likely to break with 7 checkers back than with 6.
Also, the possibility of remaking the 3 point is too remote for me to consider (and White is probably winning most of those games anyway).
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