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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 20 April 2014, at 11:46 p.m.

In Response To: 4a-5a cube action? (John O'Hagan)

I was White in this position vs. XGR+ recently. It looked like a good recube per the Woolsey rule. Can Black win this 26% of the time? I didn't think so but wasn't sure. Most humans would pass, IMO. If it is a take, it must be a pretty thin one. So the cube looked clear to me. + took it but the ++ eval was a clear pass. The 3 ply RO sez NR/T but I think it must be making some pretty bad checker plays. It says my side wins 81% after NR but only 72% after R/T. Hard to believe that's correct considering that I won't have to worry about losing a g after R/T.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 37
5 point match
pip: 205
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=---a--ABBB-AA-------BBaBl-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 71.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.52% (G:12.01% B:0.25%) 28.32% (G:21.45% B:1.14%)
Cubeless Equities +0.442 +0.911
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.992±0.007 (+0.985..+0.998)
Redouble/Take:+0.830 (-0.162)±0.078 (+0.752..+0.908)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.008)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 48.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 31 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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