[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

More Online Chouette Action

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 14 February 2008, at 2:38 p.m.

In Response To: More Online Chouette Action (Stick)

16/36 Blue enters and hits either on the 23-point or on the acepoint. White doesn't like those. 16/36 Blue fans. White likes those. 4/36 {1-3,1-4} Blue enters and lifts the blot on his 7-point. Those (few) look like anyone's ballgame.

I'm not sure about the gammons. Blue looks like he wins more gammons than White, but is it a lot more? If not then this position looks like a beaver.

Let's put some numbers to this (assuming White owns a 2-cube). I'm going to say that Blue's fans are White cashes. In a cross section of 36 games that's +32 for White.

On the four hitless-enters, I'm giving White 60% (edge because of cube ownership).

That's 0.6*4*2 - 0.4*4*2 = +1.6 for White.

On the 16 hits, (including cube ownership equity for White) I'm giving Blue 50% Gammons, 30% simple wins, and 20% losses. (For Blue) that's 0.5*16*4 + 0.3*16*2 - 0.2*16*2 = 35.2.

So the net for White is 33.6 - 35.2 = -1.6.

I don't claim that this is accurate. But I do think it confirms that the decision to beaver is close.

N+T (near B).

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.