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When I-sight and Keith don't work

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 3:56 p.m.

In Response To: When I-sight and Keith don't work (phil simborg)

Looks like a small double with blue winning about 72.5%.

Here's how I got this. First, let's start with Isight adjustments. Blue gets +2 for two extra crossovers and +2 for a third checker on the ace point. Also, we are supposed to add 2 for gaps on 4 and 6 points, but with five checkers in the outfield those gaps are going to be filled, so no need to add penalty for gaps!

This brings adjusted pip counts to 80 vs. 87, and by Nack58 the point of last take for white is 90. White is three pips below that, so we have just enough for an initial double.

Next, white has 22% at 90 pips and 50% at 76, so 14 pips spread over 28% making each pip worth 2% on average. However, since CPW curve is not linear, each pip is worth about 10% less than average around point of last take. So, subtracting 3 times 1.8% from 78% we get about 72.5% for blue to win.

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