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When I-sight and Keith don't work

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 5:23 p.m.

In Response To: When I-sight and Keith don't work (phil simborg)

I) First I think about how much the EPCs are greater than a low wastage race.

White will come in close to ideal. I will guess about a half pip worse.

Doing this for blue is by far the hardest step here. I will compare to a closed board with spares on 1,2,3 which is 13.7 wastage. The checkers on the 7 and 8 may end up deep and there is no guarantee of filling the 4 point and 6 point. Blue looks worse than that reference. I will estimate as 14.7. This is 7.5 more than low wastage race of about 7.2.

II) Adjust for variance.

Blue has a moderately stacked position on low points. Also if he does get low numbers in next few rolls they smooth his position. I will adjust 1/2 pip in favor of race leader Blue.

III) So I consider it as a race of 83 to 88 and then use Trice guidelines.

Race of 83 gives last take down 10 pips. No double and take.

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