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Tricky Decision at Novi – 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 5 July 2014, at 6:44 p.m.

In Response To: Tricky Decision at Novi – 62S-11N-42S-43P-53Z-22 (Taper_Mike)

My first instinct is to hit twice. This can be done in a couple of different ways. 5/3*/1*(2) is the blitziest, but I don't like it because I think it sacrifices too much of Blue's priming equity. The other plausible way to hit twice is 7/3*/1* together with a fourth 2; I don't know whether 24/22 or 13/11 is better. Maybe 13/11.

What about hitting just once? There are a couple of different ways to do that, too. We can switch points with 5/3*(2), after which the best remaining two 2's (if we're not hitting twice) are probably 13/11(2). Or we could hit loose with 7/3* and then find two more 2's. I can't find any move of this form that I like better than 13/11(2) 5/3*(2), so if I hit once, that's the way I'm going to do it.

Could it possibly be right not to hit at all? The first three 2's would surely have to be 13/7, and then I guess I would play 24/22 for the fourth 2. It's hard to believe that this is better than not hitting.

So I'm down to 13/11 7/3*/1* or 13/11(2) 5/3*(2). Despite my first instinct, I'm going to go with 13/11(2) 5/3*(2). Though 7/3*/1* keeps the best three-point board and puts two on the bar, it's overkill when White dances (the cube is still centered) and if White enters then the followup looks more awkward because the blot is hard to cover.

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