64P-53P-54S-61H-63F-11D̲-32U-22

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148

Unlimited Game

pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--aBaBCB----dD---c-d---bB-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Blue to play 22

Rollout¹

24/22 13/11 6/4* 4/2*

eq: +0.7665

Player:
Opponent:

66.22% (G:31.76% B:0.92%)
33.78% (G:8.63% B:0.45%)

Conf.: ±0.0037 (+0.7628...+0.7702) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes

Rollout¹

24/22(2) 6/4* 4/2*

eq: +0.7394 (-0.0271)

Player:
Opponent:

65.35% (G:29.82% B:0.85%)
34.65% (G:7.98% B:0.31%)

Conf.: ±0.0034 (+0.7360...+0.7428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 44 seconds

Rollout²

13/11(2) 6/4* 4/2*

eq: +0.7344 (-0.0320)

Player:
Opponent:

65.36% (G:32.06% B:0.95%)
34.64% (G:9.43% B:0.62%)

Conf.: ±0.0052 (+0.7292...+0.7396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 07 seconds

Rollout³

13/9 6/4* 4/2*

eq: +0.7248 (-0.0416)

Player:
Opponent:

65.00% (G:31.86% B:0.94%)
35.00% (G:9.59% B:0.64%)

Conf.: ±0.0057 (+0.7191...+0.7305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 23 seconds

Rollout³

24/20 6/4* 4/2*

eq: +0.7138 (-0.0526)

Player:
Opponent:

65.18% (G:29.20% B:0.82%)
34.82% (G:8.58% B:0.44%)

Conf.: ±0.0058 (+0.7081...+0.7196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 18 seconds

¹ 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51727998
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51727998
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51727998
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-Jul-05
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
64P-53P-54S-61H-63F-11D̲-32U-22-n-tm.xgp
n[Y̲ E27 N32 n42 e53] "<=15*7 5
n[Y̲ E20 N25 n36 e44] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Unlike the companion problem in this thread, there is no option that would allow Blue to hit safely while switching points. Hitting loose is the only way to hit at all. The double hit from the 6pt, therefore, leaving a blot on the 2pt, is going to be part of any play. The question, then, is how to play the other 2s.

As things stand, Blue has only 9 checkers in the zone. Clearly, some kind of play from the midpoint is needed. Unfortunately, neither 13/11(2) nor 13/9 brings another checker within direct range of covering the 2pt. If one of them did, it might have fared better in the rollout.

In terms of attacking power, playing 13/11 is almost as good as 13/9 or 13/11(2). The marginal gain from playing the final 2 in the outfield is not nearly as much as the gain from splitting the anchor.

Mike

64P-53P-54S-61H-63F-11D̲-32U-22 — Unlimited Games
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc	714801200	+742.844	n[Y̲ E18 N23 n29 e41] '/0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	51727998	+766.5	n[Y̲ E27 N32 n42 e53] "<=15*7 5	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	+751.6	n[Y̲ E20 N25 n36 e44] "&e	Taper_Mike

Key: E = Each [24/22(2), 6/4*/2*], e = each [24/20, 6/4*/2*], N = Near [13/11(2), 6/4*/2*], n = near [13/9, 6/4*/2*], Y = Yosemite [24/22, 13/11, 6/4*/2*]

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