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Cube action problems (after 61), ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 15 July 2014, at 4:00 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action problems (after 61) (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC---eC---aBca-ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

53P-66B-61A [N 664-42] "<=5


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:18.40% B:1.10%) 65.99% (G:18.71% B:1.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:8.27% B:0.27%) 34.01% (G:8.52% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.429 +0.862
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.664±0.008 (+0.656..+0.672)
Double/Take:+0.622 (-0.042)±0.009 (+0.612..+0.631)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.336)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.1%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 45 minutes

The margin to NOT double the 53P position (see rollout above) is about the same as the margin to double the 64 positions (see side-by-side rollouts below). Immediately below is a nacubrac summary.

..........53P-66B-61A [N 664-42] "<=5
........64P-66B-61A [D 841-41] "<=5
........64P-66B-61a .[D 855-48] "<=5

Nactation tutorial • explanation of nacbracs • nacubracs (nacbracs for cube actions)

[Computers do not distinguish between upper and lower case for file names. So, while I use "a" here to describe White's last move (8/1) in the third position, I use "1" (for 1pt) in my file name (i.e., 64P-66B-611-C).]

Based on the cube action results, the equities of White's A and a moves appears to be very close, with 6/5 narrowly beating 2/1 (the former gives Blue a slightly less strong double).

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC---eC---aBca--c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

64P-66B-61A [D 841-41] "<=5


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.58% (G:18.72% B:1.04%) 69.55% (G:19.92% B:1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.42% (G:6.66% B:0.18%) 30.45% (G:6.82% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities +0.521 +1.063
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.800 (-0.041)±0.007 (+0.793..+0.807)
Double/Take:+0.841±0.009 (+0.832..+0.850)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.159)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBC---eC---aBd---ba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

64P-66B-61a [D 855-48] "<=5


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.75% (G:19.72% B:1.13%) 69.82% (G:20.28% B:1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.25% (G:7.08% B:0.16%) 30.18% (G:7.30% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.531 +1.074
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.807 (-0.048)±0.006 (+0.801..+0.814)
Double/Take:+0.855±0.008 (+0.847..+0.863)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.145)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90989291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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