I'll see if between me and GNU-bg we can make this maximally confusing. Forget the 5-1 roll shown in the diagram (that's GNU-bg's contribution to the confusion). The roll is 4-3 (with two checkers on the bar). Note that Blue owns the cube. After Blue plays 25/21 (forced) and picks up the dice, White is on roll in the EXACT position of the original post, except Blue owns the cube. So the match equity (40.3%) of this rollout is the take equity of the original position. Since passing leaves Blue with 40% match equity, the take is right by 0.3% MWC. That's pretty close, but still a take. (Note almost exactly 30% wins by Blue here, compared to nearly 33% with White's spare checkers on the 2- and 3-points.)
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 3 points)
Move number 7: Blue to play 15
Pip counts: White 106, Blue 126
Position ID: be4CAQZtdgYAYQ Match ID: UYl0AAAAAAAA
• Blue moves bar/21
Alert: lucky roll! (+7.968%)
| # | Ply | Move | MWC | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | 1 | R | bar/21 | 40.294% | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2469 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1049708928 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||