First the cube action. According to the rollout, it's D/P before the roll. Generally speaking, it's the opponent's gammons that inhibit the 3a player from doubling. Those gammons mean that the opponent can take rather deeply, and if the opponent wins that many gammons then you're probably either not good enough to double or too good to double.
However, when your opponent doesn't win many gammons (say, less than 5%) then the doubling decision is fairly "normal" in the sense that you should assess whether it's a take, and if you think the take might be close then you should double. Your own gammons shouldn't inhibit you from doubling, except of course if you're clearly too good. However, since your opponent has a gammicidal recube available, even a high cubeless gammon rate doesn't necessarily mean you're too good. Under most circumstances, you probably need to be winning nearly 80% before you're too good unless the position is super-gammonish. I thought I was too good here, and it's not too big a blunder not to double, but the computer doesn't think I should play on.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 146 | | 7 point match | pip: 123
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aBaBCC--A-bB--Bdbe------:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.79% (G:33.25% B:1.34%) | 77.79% (G:34.32% B:2.71%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.21% (G:3.80% B:0.22%) | 22.21% (G:3.90% B:0.31%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.865 | +1.499 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.946 (-0.054) | ±0.011 (+0.935..+0.958) |
| Double/Take: | +1.063 (+0.063) | ±0.018 (+1.045..+1.081) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Now for the checker play. For the rollout, I have put the cube on White's side (though the cube location turns out to have little effect on the computer verdict qualitatively). The rollout puts the priming play 13/8 10/8 clearly on top. This is also the DMP play. I chose to hit, but I thought that leaving three blots was too loose, so I played 10/5 6/4*. However, the double hit isn't much riskier and has far greater upside. Hitting twice is the money play, but the gammons aren't worth as much ATS even if the cube stays on 2.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 146 | | 7 point match | pip: 123
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aBaBCC--A-bB--Bdbe------:1:-1:1:52:4:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 10/8 | eq: +0.407 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.12% (G:25.69% B:2.79%)
24.88% (G:3.97% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.398...+0.416) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/2* 6/4* | eq: +0.335 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.90% (G:39.78% B:3.27%)
27.10% (G:6.72% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.324...+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/5 7/5 | eq: +0.331 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.87% (G:26.44% B:2.30%)
27.13% (G:4.81% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.321...+0.341) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/4* | eq: +0.291 (-0.116) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.27% (G:29.95% B:2.62%)
27.73% (G:5.83% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.280...+0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Checker play for money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 146 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 123
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aBaBCC--A-bB--Bdbe------:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/2* 6/4* | eq: +0.687 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.90% (G:39.41% B:0.82%)
27.10% (G:6.76% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.679...+0.695) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 10/8 | eq: +0.625 (-0.062) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.08% (G:24.52% B:0.68%)
24.92% (G:4.03% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.618...+0.632) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/5 7/5 | eq: +0.578 (-0.109) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.94% (G:26.01% B:0.81%)
27.06% (G:4.87% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.571...+0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/4* | eq: +0.571 (-0.116) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.17% (G:28.02% B:0.72%)
27.83% (G:5.63% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.563...+0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10