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Rollout for all those who weren't sure

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 22 February 2008, at 5:04 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout for all those who weren't sure (happyjuggler0)

0.5 standard deviations means about 69::31 edge. So you are right, if you were going to bet on a VERY LONG rollout (not this gimpy 15,000 trial rollout of Stick's) you should be giving or laying 2::1.

To me the biggest problem (and it's HUGE, IMO) with political polls isn't the issue of statistical uncertainty but systematic uncertainty. Every pollster knows (at least they claim they do) that the sample should be a representative cross section of the electorate. Then they go and ask 1000 people they've selected by some convenient method and try to give you the impression that their sample is representative. GMaFB.

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