[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM 20140919A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 20 September 2014, at 2:47 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140919A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

This roll eliminates our pipcount deficit nicely, but we shouldn't just think 'race' without considering the alternatives.

The matchscore and cube location tell us (after this roll) that we are definitely in the double zone and opp might even be in the drop zone. That argues for minimizing opponents good rolls, possibly at the expense of our structure.

Although there are legal plays that don't bring both checkers out of opp's homeboard, I don't see the reasoning for them. Thus I start with 22/16(2) and contemplate my last two moves.

7/1*(2) leaves the fewest return shots (1/36) and leaves opp on the bar 70% of the time, further adding to our race equity. Of the 11 entering numbers, opp's best non-hitter appears to be 45 (getting away from direct returns).

The other sensical candidate is 16/10(2) which nicely places those checkers 6-away from our homeboard gapped 4-point. Opp gets double the shots (2/36) compared to our PoH move, and is allowed to play unhindered on his side of the board.

Recently it seems I've swung too far into the pure/pretty zone when making my plays. Grabbing the 10-point is clearly the pure play. But here it seems like giving opp so many chances to not play (sitting on the bar) and getting only one joker hit instead of two justifies impurity. Sometimes the doubling cube doesn't care how many blemishes your position has.

22/16(2), 7/1*(2)

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.